Rare Events Analysis in Stochastic Models for Bacterial Evolution

Authors Robert Azencott, Brett Geiger, Ilya Timofeyev

Publication date 25 November 2018

Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.) (60J20) Problems related to evolution (92D15)

Abstract: Radical shifts in the genetic composition of large cell populations are rare events with quite low probabilities, which direct numerical simulations generally fail to evaluate accurately. We develop a large deviations framework for a class of Markov chains modeling genetic evolution of bacteria such as E. coli. In particular, we develop the cost functional and a backward search algorithm for discrete-time Markov chains which describe daily evolution of histograms of bacterial populations.

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