SIR epidemics on evolving graphs

Authors Yufeng Jiang, Remy Kassem, Grayson York, Matthew Junge, Rick Durrett

Publication date 19 January 2019

Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35)

Abstract: We consider evoSIR, a variant of the SIR model, on ErdH os-Renyi random graphs in which susceptibles with an infected neighbor break that connection at rate

h o

and rewire to a randomly chosen individual. We compute the critical infection rate

l a m b d a_{c}

and the probability of a large epidemic by showing that they are the same for the delSIR model in which

S - I

connections are deleted instead of rewired. The final size of a large delSIR epidemic has a continuous transition. Simulations suggest that the final size of a large evoSIR epidemic is discontinuous at

l a m b d a_{c}

.

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