Short-Term Load Forecasting: The Similar Shape Functional Time Series Predictor

DOI10.1109/TPWRS.2013.2272326MaRDI QIDQ6230219zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Efstathios Paparoditis, Theofanis Sapatinas

Publication date 12 January 2012

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2013.2272326

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics in engineering and industry; control charts (62P30) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Prediction theory (aspects of stochastic processes) (60G25)

Abstract: We introduce a novel functional time series methodology for short-term load forecasting. The prediction is performed by means of a weighted average of past daily load segments, the shape of which is similar to the expected shape of the load segment to be predicted. The past load segments are identified from the available history of the observed load segments by means of their closeness to a so-called reference load segment, the later being selected in a manner that captures the expected qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the load segment to be predicted. Weak consistency of the suggested functional similar shape predictor is established. As an illustration, we apply the suggested functional time series forecasting methodology to historical daily load data in Cyprus and compare its performance to that of a recently proposed alternative functional time series methodology for short-term load forecasting.

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