aggutils

CRANaggutilsMaRDI QIDQ5982778FDOQ5982778

Utilities for Aggregating Probabilistic Forecasts

Zach Jacobs, Molly Hickman

Last update: 22 August 2023

Copyright license: MIT license, File License

Software version identifier: 1.0.2

Description

Provides several methods for aggregating probabilistic forecasts. You have a group of people who have made probabilistic forecasts for the same event. You want to take advantage of the "wisdom of the crowd" and combine these forecasts in some sensible way. This package provides implementations of several strategies, including geometric mean of odds, an extremized aggregate (Neyman, Roughgarden (2021) <doi:10.1145/3490486.3538243>), and "high-density trimmed mean" (Powell et al. (2022) <doi:10.1037/dec0000191>).

Cites work

• Are You Smarter Than a Random Expert? The Robust Aggregation of Substitutable Signals
• Skew-adjusted extremized-mean: A simple method for identifying and learning from contrarian minorities in groups of forecasters.

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