nflpass (Q6033244)

**Author**: Roger W. Johnson \N**Source**: [StatLib](http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/datasets/) \N**Please cite**: \N\N**National Football League Passes** \NDataset listing all-time NFL passers through 1994 by the NFL passing efficiency rating.\NAssociated passing statistics from which this rating is computed are included.\N\NThe dataset lists statistics for 26 players. The first 25 are the top 25 all-time career best rating leaders recognized by the NFL. The 26th player, Otto Graham, has statistics which include his performance in the All-America Football Conference (1946-1949) which is not recognized by the NFL. The statistics given are current through the 1994 regular season. Only passers with a minimum of 1,500 career passing attempts are included.\N\NThe NFL describes how to compute its rating in its 1977 document "National Football League Passer Rating System" (410 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10022-4444, (212) 758-1500) through the use of tables. No formula is explicitly stated for rating. But, examining the tables in the "National\NFootball League Passer Rating System" one can infer that NFL passer rating is\N\N[5(Completion Percentage-30)/6] + [10(Touchdown Percentage)/3] +\N[25(19-2(Interception Percentage))/12] + [25(Yards/Attempts-3)/6]\N\Nwhere it is understood that the values within each set of square brackets are\Ntruncated to be no smaller than zero and no larger than 475/12. This implies a\Nminimal rating of 0 and a maximal rating of 475/3 or about 158.3. If\N\N30% < Completion Percentage < 77.5%\N0% < Touchdown Percentage < 11.875%\N0% < Interception Percentage < 9.5%\N3 < Yards per Attempt < 12.5,\N\Nwhich is true of most passers having a reasonable number of passing attempts,\Nthen the rating formula simplifies to\N\N[25 + 10(Completion Percentage) + 40(Touchdown Percentage)\N- 50(Interception Percentage) + 50(Yards/Attempt)]/12\N\N(see Johnson (1993, 1994). Note that the weights on interception percentage and\Nyards per attempt are greatest in magnitude, closely followed by touchdown\Npercentage. The weight on completion percentage is a distant fourth in\Nmagnitude.\N\N\N### Classroom Use of this Data \NUsing the NFL data from Meserole (1995), for which the above inequalities\Nhold, one can uncover (at least approximately) the simplified rating formula\Nusing multiple regression. Students can be told that NFL rating is "based on\Nperformance standards established for completion percentage, average gain,\Ntouchdown percentage and interception percentage" (Meserole (1995)), but the\Nactual formula for rating is not widely publicized. Once the rating formula is\Nuncovered, one can see the relative weights that the NFL assigns to these four\Nperformance standards (see Barra and Neyer (1995) for an alternative). Also, by\Nciting unusual passers who don't satisfy the above inequalities an instructor\Ncan remind students of the dangers of extrapolation when building regression\Nmodels. Here are a few such unusual passers:\N\NName Attempts Completions Yards Touchdowns Interceptions Rating\N\NRypien 3 3 15 0 0 87.5\NMarshall 1 1 81 1 0 158.3\NMuster 1 0 0 0 1 0.0\N\NThe data for Arthur Marshall, a wide-receiver for Denver, and for Brad Muster,\Na full-back for Chicago are from the 1992 season. The data for quarterback Mark\NRypien is for his performance at one point during the 1995 season (see _USA\NToday_, Thursday September 28, 1995, 9C).\N\NOne might also try tracking down the passing (not receiving!) records of Jerry\NRice for the 1995 season as he apparently threw for a touchdown in the regular\Nseason finale.\N\N### Variables (from left to right) \NPassing Attempts \NPassing Completions \NPassing Yards \NTouchdowns by Passing \NInterceptions \NNFL Rating (usually to the nearest tenth, sometimes to the nearest hundredth to eliminate ties that would result when only given to the nearest tenth) \NName of NFL Player \N\N\N### References\NBarra, A. and Neyer, R. (1995), "When rating quarterbacks, yards per throw\Nmatters", _The Wall Street Journal_, Friday, November 24, B5.\N\NJohnson, R. (1994), "Rating quarterbacks: An amplification", _The College\NMathematics Journal_, vol. 25, no. 4, p. 340.\N\NJohnson, R. (1993), "How does the NFL rate the passing ability of\Nquarterbacks?", _The College Mathematics Journal_, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 451-453.\N\NMeserole, M., editor, (1995), "The 1996 Information Please Sports Almanac",\Np. 265.