The realization problem for tail correlation functions

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Abstract: For a stochastic process XttinT with identical one-dimensional margins and upper endpoint auextup its tail correlation function (TCF) is defined through chi(X)(s,t)=limauoauextupP(Xs>au,mid,Xt>au). It is a popular bivariate summary measure that has been frequently used in the literature in order to assess tail dependence. In this article, we study its realization problem. We show that the set of all TCFs on TimesT coincides with the set of TCFs stemming from a subclass of max-stable processes and can be completely characterized by a system of affine inequalities. Basic closure properties of the set of TCFs and regularity implications of the continuity of chi are derived. If T is finite, the set of TCFs on TimesT forms a convex polytope of lvertTvertimeslvertTvert matrices. Several general results reveal its complex geometric structure. Up to lvertTvert=6 a reduced system of necessary and sufficient conditions for being a TCF is determined. None of these conditions will become obsolete as lvertTvertgeq3 grows.



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