Thresholds versus fractional expectation-thresholds

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Abstract: Proving a conjecture of Talagrand, a fractional version of the 'expectation-threshold' conjecture of Kalai and the second author, we show for any increasing family F on a finite set X that pc(F)=O(qf(F)logell(F)), where pc(F) and qf(F) are the threshold and 'fractional expectation-threshold' of F, and ell(F) is the largest size of a minimal member of F. This easily implies several heretofore difficult results and conjectures in probabilistic combinatorics, including thresholds for perfect hypergraph matchings (Johansson--Kahn--Vu), bounded-degree spanning trees (Montgomery), and bounded-degree spanning graphs (new). We also resolve (and vastly extend) the 'axial' version of the random multi-dimensional assignment problem (earlier considered by Martin--M'{e}zard--Rivoire and Frieze--Sorkin). Our approach builds on a recent breakthrough of Alweiss, Lovett, Wu and Zhang on the ErdH{o}s--Rado 'Sunflower Conjecture'.




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