Upper Tails of Subgraph Counts in Sparse Regular Graphs

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Abstract: What is the probability that a sparse n-vertex random d-regular graph Gnd, n1c<d=o(n) contains many more copies of a fixed graph K than expected? We determine the behavior of this upper tail to within a logarithmic gap in the exponent. For most graphs K (for instance, for any K of average degree greater than 4) we determine the upper tail up to a 1+o(1) factor in the exponent. However, we also provide an example of a graph, given by adding an edge to K2,4, where the upper tail probability behaves differently from previously studied behavior in both the sparse random regular and sparse ErdH{o}s-R'{e}nyi models in this sparsity regime.












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