Upper tail bounds for cycles

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Abstract: This paper examines bounds on upper tails for cycle counts in Gn,p. For a fixed graph H define xiH=xiHn,p to be the number of copies of H in Gn,p. It is a much studied and surprisingly difficult problem to understand the upper tail of the distribution of xiH, for example, to estimate �egin{equation*} mathbb{P}(xi_H > 2 mathbb{E}xi_H). end{equation*} The best known result for general H and p is due to Janson, Oleszkiewicz, and Ruci'nski, who, in 2004, proved �egin{align}label{a:JOR} exp[-O_{H, eta}(M_H(n,p) ln(1/p))]&<mathbb{P}(xi_H > (1+eta)mathbb{E} xi_H)\&<exp[-Omega_{H, eta}(M_{H}(n,p))]. onumber end{align} Thus they determined the upper tail up to a factor of ln(1/p) in the exponent. There has since been substantial work to improve these bounds for particular H and p. We close the ln(1/p) gap for cycles, up to a constant in the exponent. Here the lower bound given by JOR is the truth for l-cycles when p>fracln1/(l−2)nn.












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