The aggregation of imprecise probabilities (Q1611814): Difference between revisions

Imprecise probabilities are elicited from a group of experts in terms of betting rates. Two approaches to the aggregation of imprecise probabilities are presented. First, confidence-weighted lower and upper probabilities are used as the fundamental representation of uncertainty. In the second method, the parameters of interest are not ``true'' subjective probabilities but rather risk-neutral probabilities, which are the products of probabilities and relative marginal utilities for money. In both methods, the fundamental concept of the probability is an interpersonal one, with irreducible game-theoretic elements.