Uncertainty quantification in simulations of epidemics using polynomial chaos (Q454732): Difference between revisions
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Property / author: Q454731 / rank | |||
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Property / author: Francisco-José Santonja / rank | |||
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Summary: Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations are a useful tool to study the processes involved in epidemiology. Many models consider that the parameters are deterministic variables. But in practice, the transmission parameters present large variability and it is not possible to determine them exactly, and it is necessary to introduce randomness. In this paper, we present an application of the polynomial chaos approach to epidemiological mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations with random coefficients. Taking into account the variability of the transmission parameters of the model, this approach allows us to obtain an auxiliary system of differential equations, which is then integrated numerically to obtain the first- and the second-order moments of the output stochastic processes. A sensitivity analysis based on the polynomial chaos approach is also performed to determine which parameters have the greatest influence on the results. As an example, we will apply the approach to an obesity epidemic model. | |||
Property / review text: Summary: Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations are a useful tool to study the processes involved in epidemiology. Many models consider that the parameters are deterministic variables. But in practice, the transmission parameters present large variability and it is not possible to determine them exactly, and it is necessary to introduce randomness. In this paper, we present an application of the polynomial chaos approach to epidemiological mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations with random coefficients. Taking into account the variability of the transmission parameters of the model, this approach allows us to obtain an auxiliary system of differential equations, which is then integrated numerically to obtain the first- and the second-order moments of the output stochastic processes. A sensitivity analysis based on the polynomial chaos approach is also performed to determine which parameters have the greatest influence on the results. As an example, we will apply the approach to an obesity epidemic model. / rank | |||
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Property / Mathematics Subject Classification ID | |||
Property / Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 92D30 / rank | |||
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Property / Mathematics Subject Classification ID | |||
Property / Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 34C28 / rank | |||
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Property / zbMATH DE Number: 6092386 / rank | |||
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Property / zbMATH Keywords | |||
epidemiology | |||
Property / zbMATH Keywords: epidemiology / rank | |||
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transmission parameters | |||
Property / zbMATH Keywords: transmission parameters / rank | |||
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polynomial chaos | |||
Property / zbMATH Keywords: polynomial chaos / rank | |||
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obesity epidemic model | |||
Property / zbMATH Keywords: obesity epidemic model / rank | |||
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Property / Wikidata QID: Q42320991 / rank | |||
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Property / MaRDI profile type: MaRDI publication profile / rank | |||
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Property / full work available at URL | |||
Property / full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/742086 / rank | |||
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Property / OpenAlex ID | |||
Property / OpenAlex ID: W2126247351 / rank | |||
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Property / cites work | |||
Property / cites work: The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases / rank | |||
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Property / cites work: Mathematical modelling of social obesity epidemic in the region of Valencia, Spain / rank | |||
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Property / cites work: Epidemic models with random coefficients / rank | |||
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links / mardi / name | links / mardi / name | ||
Latest revision as of 18:41, 5 July 2024
scientific article
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English | Uncertainty quantification in simulations of epidemics using polynomial chaos |
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Uncertainty quantification in simulations of epidemics using polynomial chaos (English)
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10 October 2012
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Summary: Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations are a useful tool to study the processes involved in epidemiology. Many models consider that the parameters are deterministic variables. But in practice, the transmission parameters present large variability and it is not possible to determine them exactly, and it is necessary to introduce randomness. In this paper, we present an application of the polynomial chaos approach to epidemiological mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations with random coefficients. Taking into account the variability of the transmission parameters of the model, this approach allows us to obtain an auxiliary system of differential equations, which is then integrated numerically to obtain the first- and the second-order moments of the output stochastic processes. A sensitivity analysis based on the polynomial chaos approach is also performed to determine which parameters have the greatest influence on the results. As an example, we will apply the approach to an obesity epidemic model.
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epidemiology
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transmission parameters
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polynomial chaos
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obesity epidemic model
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