A note on the risk of infections invading unaffected regions (Q1632632): Difference between revisions
From MaRDI portal
Set OpenAlex properties. |
ReferenceBot (talk | contribs) Changed an Item |
||
| Property / cites work | |||
| Property / cites work: Modeling importations and exportations of infectious diseases via travelers / rank | |||
Normal rank | |||
| Property / cites work | |||
| Property / cites work: A comparative analysis of the relative efficacy of vector-control strategies against dengue fever / rank | |||
Normal rank | |||
| Property / cites work | |||
| Property / cites work: Nonhomogeneous birth and death models for epidemic outbreak data / rank | |||
Normal rank | |||
Latest revision as of 17:07, 17 July 2024
scientific article
| Language | Label | Description | Also known as |
|---|---|---|---|
| English | A note on the risk of infections invading unaffected regions |
scientific article |
Statements
A note on the risk of infections invading unaffected regions (English)
0 references
17 December 2018
0 references
Summary: We present two probabilistic models to estimate the risk of introducing infectious diseases into previously unaffected countries/regions by infective travellers. We analyse two distinct situations, one dealing with a directly transmitted infection (measles in Italy in 2017) and one dealing with a vector-borne infection (Zika virus in Rio de Janeiro, which may happen in the future). To calculate the risk in the first scenario, we used a simple, nonhomogeneous birth process. The second model proposed in this paper provides a way to calculate the probability that local mosquitoes become infected by the arrival of a single infective traveller during his/her infectiousness period. The result of the risk of measles invasion of Italy was of 93\% and the result of the risk of Zika virus invasion of Rio de Janeiro was of 22\%.
0 references
infection risk
0 references
unaffected regions
0 references
infective travellers
0 references
