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Revision as of 10:29, 30 July 2024

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Bayesian analysis of extreme values by mixture modelling
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    Bayesian analysis of extreme values by mixture modelling (English)
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    24 November 2004
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    It is supposed that the observed exceedances over some fixed threshold are generated by a Poisson process with intensity \[ \Lambda_y= ( 1+\xi(y-\mu)/ \psi)^{-1/\xi}, \] where \(\mu\) is the location, \(\psi\) is the scale and \(\xi\) is the shape parameter. A Bayesian analysis technique is described for the parameter \(\eta=(\mu,\psi,\xi)\) with a prior according to the mixture distribution \(\sum_{j=1}^k w_j p_j(\cdot\mid\delta_j)\) (here \(w_j\), \(\delta_j\) and \(k\) are hyperparameters). This construction allows the description of heterogeneous data. An application to insurance claim data is presented. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used for the prior evaluation.
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    exceedance over threshold
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    generalized Poisson process
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    Markov Chain Monte Carlo
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