Modelling data uncertainty in growth forecasts (Q1820542): Difference between revisions

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Modelling data uncertainty in growth forecasts
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    Modelling data uncertainty in growth forecasts (English)
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    1987
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    A probabilistic methodology within a dynamic framework is proposed for the study of moments of errors in growth forecasts resulting from data uncertainty. This methodology is applied to well-known evolutionary models of growth, namely exponential and logistic. Explicit expressions for moments of the stochastic variable are derived. The paper explores methods based on two-point distribution approach, second-moment analysis, and probability distribution of parameters. Of these, the two-point distribution is found to be computationally advantageous.
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    Gaussian
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    uniform
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    exponential growth model
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    logistic growth model
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    moments of errors
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    growth forecasts
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    data uncertainty
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    two-point distribution
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    second-moment analysis
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