A newly-discovered result of Thomas Bayes (Q1078157): Difference between revisions

The proof of Bayes's theorem is given in proposition 10 of his ``Essay'' [\textit{Th. Bayes}, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 53, 370--418 (1763; Zbl 1250.60007)]. \textit{S. M. Stigler} [Am. Stat. 37, 290-296 (1983; Zbl 0537.62004)] means that this result was perhaps discovered by someone else, basing on a passage from a book by David Hartley (1749). In one of the newly found Notebooks of Thomas Bayes, dated from 1746 to 1749, the entries of pp. 81 to 83 indicate that the proof was known to Bayes himself. A free and partially reconstructed translation of these pages is given, writing some of his formulae in a more modern notation. The original Latin text is to be found in the Appendix, some of the Latin contractions used by Bayes are expanded by the present author.