Empirical modeling in dynamic econometrics (Q1083014)
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English | Empirical modeling in dynamic econometrics |
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Empirical modeling in dynamic econometrics (English)
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1986
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The roles of evaluation, discovery, and theory in modeling economic time series are analyzed. Being reductions of data processes, models reflect economic behavior, filtered by the measurement system; the reductions entail a taxonomy of information sets and hence of selection criteria characterizing congruency. No method of model construction is necessarily valid, but search affects only research efficiency, not the intrinsic usefulness of a model. Moreover, critical evaluation remains justifiable, with predictive failure revealing the information content of tiny samples, and encompassing sustaining progressivity. Theory-models of starts and completions of private dwellings based on dynamized static equilibria and intertemporal optimization are contrasted. Empirical modeling illustrates the analysis.
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evaluation
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discovery
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modeling economic time series
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taxonomy of information sets
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dynamized static equilibria
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intertemporal optimization
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