Stochastic models for epidemics with special reference to AIDS (Q1210479)

The effects of various model assumptions on the predicted development of the AIDS epidemic are studied. The discussion is based on diffusion approximations to various Markovian models [see \textit{T. G. Kurtz}, J. Appl. Probab. 8, 344-356 (1971; Zbl 0219.60060)], enabling the inherent variability in the outcome of the epidemic, even if both model and parameters were accurately known, to be assessed. Particular emphasis is given to the qualitative changes in the course of the epidemic, when infectivity is allowed to vary as a function of time elapsed since infection, but \(R_ 0\) is maintained at a fixed value.