Saddle point approximations in n-type epidemics and contact birth processes (Q1072964)

If X(t,w) is a stochastic process denoting the furthest spread of a one- type contact birth process, it is then known that \(Y(x,t)=\Pr ob(X(t)>x)\) solves a simple (deterministic) epidemic equation and that Y propagates with the minimal speed \(c_ 0\) at which a wave solution exists to the equation. In the present article, the authors formulate a deterministic (also a stochastic) model for the spatial spread of an n-type epidemic with constant infectivity and removal. The minimal speed \(c_ 0\) at which wave solutions exist for the corresponding epidemic equations is explicitly calculated. An n-type contact birth process is defined and a connection between the distribution of the position of furthest spread of the infection and the epidemic equations is established. For the n-type stochastic epidemic model, it is shown that \(c_ 0\) is a crude approximation for the asymptotic expectation velocity.