A mathematical model for the global spread of influenza (Q1060157)

A mathematical model is presented for forecasting the global spread of influenza based on information from the initial city in the transportation network to experience the disease. This model represents the natural extension of nearly 20 years of Soviet work on modeling the geographic spread of influenza in the U.S.S.R. and Bulgaria. However, the work presented in this paper is the first attempt at applying the methods on a global scale. A description of the model formulation is given along with a method for estimating critical parameters. The model is then applied to forecasting the global spread of the ''Hong Kong'' pandemic of 1968-1969 based on estimated parameters from Hong Kong, the initial city to report the appearance of the then new strain of influenza A. The forecast is shown to reproduce the general time-space spread of the actual epidemic as documented by World Health Organization sources.