Random walks on the mapping class group (Q630633)

The mapping class group of an orientable surface of finite type (a surface of genus \(g\) with \(p\) marked points called punctures) consists of orientation-preserving mappings that preserve the punctures modulo those mappings isotopic to the identity. Thurston's work shows that all elements of the mapping class group are periodic, reducible or pseudo-Anosov. The author of this paper proves that a random walk on the mapping class group reaches a pseudo-Anosov element with asymptotic probability one. In fact, the author proves something broader. His main theorem is as follows: On the mapping class group \(G\) of an orientable non-sporadic surface of finite type, consider a random walk determined by a probability distribution \(\mu\) whose support generates a nonelementary subgroup. If \(R\) is a subset of \(G\) with the property that every element of \(R\) is conjugate to an element of relative length at most \(B\) for some constant \(B\), then the probability that a random walk of length \(n\) lies in \(R\) tends to zero as \(n\to\infty\).