Modified SEIR epidemic model including asymptomatic and hospitalized cases with correct demographic evolution

DOI10.1016/J.AMC.2023.128122arXiv2206.03806OpenAlexW4378468694MaRDI QIDQ6107999

Juan I. Montijano, Luis Enrique Bergues Cabrales, Erick Eduardo Ramirez-Torres, Hilda María Morandeira-Padrón, Luis Eugenio Valdés-García, Diana Sedal Yanez, Antonio Rafael Selva Castañeda

Publication date: 29 June 2023

Published in: Applied Mathematics and Computation (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic variation of population. It is shown that considering a population growth proportional to the total population leads to solutions with a qualitative behaviour different from the behaviour obtained in many studies, where constant growth ratio is assumed. An exhaustive theoretical study is carried out and the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is computed from the model equations. It is proved that if $R_0<1$ then the disease-free manifold is globally asymptotically stable, that is, the epidemics remits. Global and local stability of the equilibrium points is also studied. Numerical simulations are used to show the agreement between numerical results and theoretical properties. The model is fitted to experimental data corresponding to the pandemic evolution in the Rep'ublica de Cuba, showing a proper behaviour of infected cases which let us think that can provide a correct estimation of asymptomatic cases. In conclusion, the model seems to be an adequate tool for the study and control of infectious diseases in particular the COVID-19 disease transmission.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.03806

zbMATH Keywords

mathematical modellingepidemics modelsCOVID-19asymptomatic caseshospitalized casessymptomatic cases

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Stability theory for ordinary differential equations (34Dxx) Genetics and population dynamics (92Dxx) Qualitative theory for ordinary differential equations (34Cxx)

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