Analysis of comparative data with hierarchical autocorrelation

DOI10.1214/08-AOAS173MaRDI QIDQ958333zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Cécile Ané

Publication date 3 December 2008

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/0804.3166

zbMATH Keywords

consistencylinear modelphylogenetic treedependenceasymptotic convergenceBrownian motion evolutioncomparative method

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Asymptotic properties of parametric estimators (62F12) Linear regression; mixed models (62J05) Inference from stochastic processes (62M99) Estimation in survival analysis and censored data (62N02) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Estimation in multivariate analysis (62H12) Analysis of variance and covariance (ANOVA) (62J10)

Abstract: The asymptotic behavior of estimates and information criteria in linear models are studied in the context of hierarchically correlated sampling units. The work is motivated by biological data collected on species where autocorrelation is based on the species' genealogical tree. Hierarchical autocorrelation is also found in many other kinds of data, such as from microarray experiments or human languages. Similar correlation also arises in ANOVA models with nested effects. I show that the best linear unbiased estimators are almost surely convergent but may not be consistent for some parameters such as the intercept and lineage effects, in the context of Brownian motion evolution on the genealogical tree. For the purpose of model selection I show that the usual BIC does not provide an appropriate approximation to the posterior probability of a model. To correct for this, an effective sample size is introduced for parameters that are inconsistently estimated. For biological studies, this work implies that tree-aware sampling design is desirable; adding more sampling units may not help ancestral reconstruction and only strong lineage effects may be detected with high power.

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Cited in

(14)

• Multi-task learning improves ancestral state reconstruction
• Ancestral state reconstruction with large numbers of sequences and edge-length estimation
• Interspecies correlation for neutrally evolving traits
• A consistent estimator of the evolutionary rate
• Phylogenetic effective sample size
• The phylogenetic effective sample size and jumps
• Asymptotic theory with hierarchical autocorrelation: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck tree models
• When can we reconstruct the ancestral state? A unified theory
• When can we reconstruct the ancestral state? Beyond Brownian motion
• A phylogenetic comparative method for studying multivariate adaptation
• On the convergence of the maximum likelihood estimator for the transition rate under a 2-state symmetric model
• Learning from non-iid data: fast rates for the one-vs-all multiclass plug-in classifiers
• Phylogenetic confidence intervals for the optimal trait value
• Adaptive trait evolution in random environment

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