Assessment of point process models for earthquake forecasting
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Research exposition (monographs, survey articles) pertaining to probability theory (60-02) Point processes (e.g., Poisson, Cox, Hawkes processes) (60G55) Inference from spatial processes (62M30) Applications of statistics to physics (62P35) Research exposition (monographs, survey articles) pertaining to geophysics (86-02) Seismology (including tsunami modeling), earthquakes (86A15) Geostatistics (86A32)
Abstract: Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the data is typically assessed using a variety of numerical tests, which unfortunately have low power and may be misleading for model comparison purposes. Promising alternatives exist, especially residual methods such as super-thinning and Voronoi residuals. This article reviews some of these tests and residual methods for determining the goodness of fit of earthquake forecasting models.
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Cites work
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- Application of branching models in the study of invasive species
- Assessing Spatial Point Process Models Using Weighted K-functions: Analysis of California Earthquakes
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- Random space change for multiparameter point processes
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- Residual Analysis for Spatial Point Processes (with Discussion)
- Residual analysis methods for space-time point processes with applications to earthquake forecast models in California
- Simulation of nonhomogeneous poisson processes by thinning
- Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences
- Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
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- Transforming spatial point processes into Poisson processes
Cited in
(21)- A coupled ETAS-\(\mathrm{I}^{2}\)GMM point process with applications to seismic fault detection
- A review of self-exciting spatio-temporal point processes and their applications
- Using machine learning for model benchmarking and forecasting of depletion-induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field
- Generalized evolutionary point processes: model specifications and model comparison
- Voronoi residual analysis of spatial point process models with applications to California earthquake forecasts
- Estimation in stationary Markov renewal processes, with application to earthquake forecasting in Turkey
- Point process modelling of reservoir-induced seismicity
- Testing earthquake predictions
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- Model Checking for Hidden Markov Models
- Simulations of local Moran’s index in a spatio-temporal setting
- Investigating Clustering and Violence Interruption in Gang-Related Violent Crime Data Using Spatial–Temporal Point Processes With Covariates
- Comparative evaluation of point process forecasts
- Accelerated non-parametrics for cascades of Poisson processes
- Hidden Markov Models for Low-Frequency Earthquake Recurrence
- A matrix-variate Dirichlet process to model earthquake hypocentre temporal patterns
- On goodness-of-fit testing for self-exciting point processes
- Avoiding sparseness in a flash ontology
- Residual analysis methods for space-time point processes with applications to earthquake forecast models in California
- Space-time inhomogeneous background intensity estimators for semi-parametric space-time self-exciting point process models
- Inference for earthquake models: A self-correcting model
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