Assessment of point process models for earthquake forecasting
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Inference from spatial processes (62M30) Point processes (e.g., Poisson, Cox, Hawkes processes) (60G55) Geostatistics (86A32) Applications of statistics to physics (62P35) Research exposition (monographs, survey articles) pertaining to probability theory (60-02) Seismology (including tsunami modeling), earthquakes (86A15) Research exposition (monographs, survey articles) pertaining to geophysics (86-02)
Abstract: Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the data is typically assessed using a variety of numerical tests, which unfortunately have low power and may be misleading for model comparison purposes. Promising alternatives exist, especially residual methods such as super-thinning and Voronoi residuals. This article reviews some of these tests and residual methods for determining the goodness of fit of earthquake forecasting models.
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Cites work
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Cited in
(21)- Voronoi residual analysis of spatial point process models with applications to California earthquake forecasts
- Comparative evaluation of point process forecasts
- Testing earthquake predictions
- Using machine learning for model benchmarking and forecasting of depletion-induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field
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- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3934285 (Why is no real title available?)
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