Bayesian analysis of traffic flow on interstate I-55: the LWR model

DOI10.1214/15-AOAS853MaRDI QIDQ262354zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Vadim Sokolov, Nicholas G. Polson

Publication date 29 March 2016

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.6034, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1453993096

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian posteriorintelligent transportation systemLWR modelparticle filteringtraffic flowtraffic prediction

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to economics (62P20) Traffic problems in operations research (90B20)

Abstract: Transportation departments take actions to manage traffic flow and reduce travel times based on estimated current and projected traffic conditions. Travel time estimates and forecasts require information on traffic density which are combined with a model to project traffic flow such as the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards (LWR) model. We develop a particle filtering and learning algorithm to estimate the current traffic density state and the LWR parameters. These inputs are related to the so-called fundamental diagram, which describes the relationship between traffic flow and density. We build on existing methodology by allowing real-time updating of the posterior uncertainty for the critical density and capacity parameters. Our methodology is applied to traffic flow data from interstate highway I-55 in Chicago. We provide a real-time data analysis of how to learn the drop in capacity as a result of a major traffic accident. Our algorithm allows us to accurately assess the uncertainty of the current traffic state at shock waves, where the uncertainty is a mixture distribution. We show that Bayesian learning can correct the estimation bias that is present in the model with fixed parameters.

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Cited in

(6)

• Data-driven uncertainty quantification in macroscopic traffic flow models
• Deep learning for energy markets
• Deep generative models for vehicle speed trajectories
• Inverting the fundamental diagram and forecasting boundary conditions: how machine learning can improve macroscopic models for traffic flow
• Traffic prediction by combining macroscopic models and Gaussian processes
• A multivariate evolutionary generalised linear model framework with adaptive estimation for claims reserving

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