Bayesian sequential joint detection and estimation

Sequential statistical analysis (62L10) Sequential estimation (62L12) Optimal stopping in statistics (62L15) Linear programming (90C05) Estimation and detection in stochastic control theory (93E10) Signal theory (characterization, reconstruction, filtering, etc.) (94A12) Detection theory in information and communication theory (94A13)

Abstract: Joint detection and estimation refers to deciding between two or more hypotheses and, depending on the test outcome, simultaneously estimating the unknown parameters of the underlying distribution. This problem is investigated in a sequential framework under mild assumptions on the underlying random process. We formulate an unconstrained sequential decision problem, whose cost function is the weighted sum of the expected run-length and the detection/estimation errors. Then, a strong connection between the derivatives of the cost function with respect to the weights, which can be interpreted as Lagrange multipliers, and the detection/estimation errors of the underlying scheme is shown. This property is used to characterize the solution of a closely related sequential decision problem, whose objective function is the expected run-length under constraints on the average detection/estimation errors. We show that the solution of the constrained problem coincides with the solution of the unconstrained problem with suitably chosen weights. These weights are characterized as the solution of a linear program, which can be solved using efficient off-the-shelf solvers. The theoretical results are illustrated with two example problems, for which optimal sequential schemes are designed numerically and whose performance is validated via Monte Carlo simulations.

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