bayprior
A toolkit for constructing, validating, and justifying Bayesian priors in clinical trial settings. Implements expert elicitation via quantile matching, the roulette method, and moment matching across six distribution families, linear and logarithmic expert pooling, meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) priors derived from historical trials, prior-data conflict diagnostics including the Box p-value (computed from the exact prior predictive distribution where one has a closed form), an exploratory surprisal (S-value) companion to it, surprise index, information divergence, and Mahalanobis distance, sensitivity analyses with tornado and influence heatmap plots, sceptical, robust, and power priors, and automated prior justification reports. Includes a fully modular 'Shiny' application for interactive use. Methods based on O'Hagan et al. (2006, ISBN:9780470029886), Box (1980) <doi:10.2307/2982063>, Greenland (2023) <doi:10.1111/sjos.12625>, Oakley and O'Hagan (2010) <https://tonyohagan.co.uk/shelf/>, Schmidli et al. (2014) <doi:10.1111/biom.12242>, Neuenschwander et al. (2010) <doi:10.1177/1740774509356002>, Roever et al. (2021) <doi:10.1002/jrsm.1475>, Ibrahim and Chen (2000) <doi:10.1214/ss/1009212673>, Spiegelhalter et al. (1994) <doi:10.2307/2983527>.
- Bayesian Approaches to Randomized Trials
- Divergence versus decisionP‐values: A distinction worth making in theory and keeping in practice: Or, how divergenceP‐values measure evidence even when decisionP‐values do not
- On weakly informative prior distributions for the heterogeneity parameter in Bayesian random‐effects meta‐analysis
- Power prior distributions for regression models
- Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information
- Sampling and Bayes' Inference in Scientific Modelling and Robustness
- Summarizing historical information on controls in clinical trials
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