Beating the average forecast: regularization based on forecaster attributes

DOI10.1016/J.JMP.2020.102419MaRDI QIDQ826899zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Edgar C. Merkle, Geoff Saw, Clintin P. Davis-Stober

Publication date 6 January 2021

Published in Journal of Mathematical Psychology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://osf.io/e76gu/

zbMATH Keywords

cultural consensus theoryregularization method for forecast aggregationunweighted average forecast

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to psychology (62P15) Memory and learning in psychology (91E40)

Recommendations

• Forecast aggregation via recalibration
• Aggregating large sets of probabilistic forecasts by weighted coherent adjustment
• Two reasons to make aggregated probability forecasts more extreme
• Robust forecast aggregation: Fourier \(L_2E\) regression
• Pooling of forecasts

Cites work

• A geometric analysis of when fixed weighting schemes will outperform ordinary least squares
• A weakly informative default prior distribution for logistic and other regression models
• Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit
• Bayesian comparison of latent variable models: conditional versus marginal likelihoods
• Consensus theory for mixed response formats
• Cultural consensus theory for continuous responses: a latent appraisal model for information pooling
• Cultural consensus theory for the ordinal data case
• Cultural consensus theory: comparing different concepts of cultural truth
• Forecast aggregation via recalibration
• Fungible weights in multiple regression
• Markov chain estimation for test theory without an answer key
• Rotational uniqueness conditions under oblique factor correlation metric
• Test theory without an answer key
• The composition of optimally wise crowds
• Three steps towards robust regression
• Two reasons to make aggregated probability forecasts more extreme
• Why are experts correlated? Decomposing correlations between judges

Cited in

(7)

• Cognitive psychometrics: the scientific legacy of William H. Batchelder (1940--2018)
• Robust forecast aggregation: Fourier \(L_2E\) regression
• Cultural consensus theory for two-dimensional location judgments
• Forecast aggregation via recalibration
• Regularized Aggregation of One-Off Probability Predictions
• A new methodology for generating and combining statistical forecasting models to enhance competitive event prediction
• Convex combinations in judgment aggregation

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• GitHub
• runjags
• JAGS
• R

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