COVID-19: metaheuristic optimization-based forecast method on time-dependent bootstrapped data

DOI10.1155/2021/1235973MaRDI QIDQ2662186zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Livio Fenga, Carlo Del Castello

Publication date 9 April 2021

Published in Journal of Probability and Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/1235973

zbMATH Keywords

forecast methodtime-dependent bootstrapped data

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bootstrap, jackknife and other resampling methods (62F40) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Statistical aspects of big data and data science (62R07) Medical epidemiology (92C60)

Review text

Summary: A compounded method -- exploiting the searching capabilities of an operation research algorithm and the power of bootstrap techniques -- is presented. The resulting algorithm has been successfully tested to predict the turning point reached by the epidemic curve followed by the COVID-19 virus in Italy. Future lines of research, which include the generalization of the method to a broad set of distribution, will be finally given.

Recommendations

• On stable parameter estimation and short-term forecasting with quantified uncertainty with application to COVID-19 transmission
• An empirical forecasting method for epidemic outbreaks with application to Covid-19
• Bayesian forecast of the basic reproduction number during the COVID-19 epidemic in Morocco and Italy
• Nonlinear regression in COVID-19 forecasting
• Forecasting the COVID-19 diffusion in Italy and the related occupancy of intensive care units

Cites work

• A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle
• Experiments in mixed-integer linear programming
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4048925 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1219584 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 795573 (Why is no real title available?)
• Nonparametric inference on structural breaks
• Optimization by simulated annealing
• Sieve bootstrap for time series
• The use of subseries values for estimating the variance of a general statistic from a stationary sequence

Cited in

(7)

• Incidence moments: a simple method to study the memory and short term forecast of the COVID-19 incidence time-series
• On sparse ensemble methods: an application to short-term predictions of the evolution of COVID-19
• Forecasting the COVID-19 diffusion in Italy and the related occupancy of intensive care units
• An empirical forecasting method for epidemic outbreaks with application to Covid-19
• Nonlinear regression in COVID-19 forecasting
• Cuantificadores de información e impredictibilidad en las series temporales asociadas a la COVID-19
• Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the republic of Belarus

This page was built for publication: COVID-19: metaheuristic optimization-based forecast method on time-dependent bootstrapped data

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2662186)