Complex dynamics of a simple epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence
From the introduction: The importance of the so-called basic reproductive number, \(R_0\), has been well recognized in the theoretical study of disease spread. In particular, for many deterministic models, \(R_0\) classifies the long-term progression of the disease under consideration. Namely, if \(R_0 < 1\), then the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable; if \(R_0 > 1\), then a unique endemic equilibrium appears and this endemic equilibrium is globally stable. However, there are increasing evidences indicating that \(R_0\) alone cannot fully determine the global dynamics of the disease transmission. Indeed, backward and/or Hopf bifurcations can happen and the Bogdanov-Takens singularity may occur. These complicated dynamics can be the consequence of non-standard incidence rates. Multiple equilibria and periodic solutions are shown to exist, and multiple limit cycles are observed in for a simple SI-model with the incidence rate \(kI^2S/(1+\alpha I^2)\) (with parameters \(k,\alpha > 0\)). We consider a simple SI-epidemic model with a constant recruitment rate and the incidence rate \(\beta(1 + \varepsilon I)IS\) suggested by \textit{P. van den Driessche} and \textit{J. Watmough} [J. Math. Biol. 40, No.~6, 525--540 (2000; Zbl 0961.92029)] and \textit{M. E. Alexander} and \textit{S. M. Moghadas} [Math. Biosci. 189, No.~1, 75--96 (2004; Zbl 1073.92040)]. We show that this simple model can exhibit very complicated dynamical behaviors. First of all, we show that such a model exhibits the backward bifurcation. That is, when the basic reproduction number \(R_0\) is slightly below one, the model can have three equilibria: the disease-free equilibrium and two endemic equilibria (one is a saddle and another is a focus) whose stability can switch when some parameters are changed. This induces the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. We also show that stable or unstable periodic solutions can also occur through the Hopf bifurcation mechanism. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. The model is introduced and its structure of equilibria is discussed in Section 2. Detailed qualitative analysis of the model is given in Section 3 (stability analysis) and Section 4 (bifurcation investigation). The paper concludes with some numerical evidences and remarks.
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