Implementing second-order decision analysis: concepts, algorithms, and tool

DOI10.1155/2014/519512MaRDI QIDQ906286zbMATH OpenOpenAlexDBLPWikidataFDO

Authors Aron Larsson, Alina Kuznetsova, Ola Caster, Love Ekenberg

Publication date 21 January 2016

Published in Advances in Decision Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-23556

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Decision theory (91B06)

Review text

Summary: We present implemented concepts and algorithms for a simulation approach to decision evaluation with second-order belief distributions in a common framework for interval decision analysis. The rationale behind this work is that decision analysis with interval-valued probabilities and utilities may lead to overlapping expected utility intervals yielding difficulties in discriminating between alternatives. By allowing for second-order belief distributions over interval-valued utility and probability statements these difficulties may not only be remedied but will also allow for decision evaluation concepts and techniques providing additional insight into a decision problem. The approach is based upon sets of linear constraints together with generation of random probability distributions and utility values from implicitly stated uniform second-order belief distributions over the polytopes given from the constraints. The result is an interactive method for decision evaluation with second-order belief distributions, complementing earlier methods for decision evaluation with interval-valued probabilities and utilities. The method has been implemented for trial use in a user oriented decision analysis software.

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Cites work

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• Computing upper and lower bounds in interval decision trees
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• Implementing stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis
• SECOND-ORDER DECISION ANALYSIS
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Cited in

(4)

• Value differences using second-order distributions
• Second-order risk constraints in decision analysis
• Decision analysis by augmented probability simulation
• SECOND-ORDER DECISION ANALYSIS

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• PRIME Decisions
• DecideIT

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