Improving adaptive seamless designs through Bayesian optimization
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Abstract: We propose to use Bayesian optimization (BO) to improve the efficiency of the design selection process in clinical trials. BO is a method to optimize expensive black-box functions, by using a regression as a surrogate to guide the search. In clinical trials, planning test procedures and sample sizes is a crucial task. A common goal is to maximize the test power, given a set of treatments, corresponding effect sizes, and a total number of samples. From a wide range of possible designs we aim to select the best one in a short time to allow quick decisions. The standard approach to simulate the power for each single design can become too time-consuming. When the number of possible designs becomes very large, either large computational resources are required or an exhaustive exploration of all possible designs takes too long. Here, we propose to use BO to quickly find a clinical trial design with high power from a large number of candidate designs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by optimizing the power of adaptive seamless designs for different sets of treatment effect sizes. Comparing BO with an exhaustive evaluation of all candidate designs shows that BO finds competitive designs in a fraction of the time.
Cites work
- A comparison of methods for adaptive treatment selection
- A taxonomy of global optimization methods based on response surfaces
- Adaptive Sample Size Calculations in Group Sequential Trials
- Adaptive seamless clinical trials using early outcomes for treatment or subgroup selection: methods, simulation model and their implementation in R
- Efficient global optimization of expensive black-box functions
- Global optimization of stochastic black-box systems via sequential kriging meta-models
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