Studies on babylonian goal-year astronomy. II: The Babylonian calendar and goal-year methods of prediction (Q1039928)

One of the predictive tools of late Babylonian astronomy was the ``Goal-Year method'', which took advantage of the fact that planetary phenomena (horizontal rising and setting as well as the passage of ``Normal Stars'') are periodic, for which reason (for each planet and for each type of phenomenon) a certain number of years plus or minus a few days can be determined, after which these phenomena repeat themselves. For instance, observation of horizon phenomena for Venus at one moment predicts how they will look 8 years and 4 days later. Such predictions were listed in ``Goal-Year Texts'' and transferred form there to ``Almanacs'' and ``Normal Star Almanacs''. However, this method (seemingly simple, once the periods have been determined) collide with the luni-solar calendar, which at certain intervals inserted an intercalary month, for which reason all years are no equally long, and not all repetitions of a given Goal-Year interval contain the same number of intercalary months. However, during the Seleucid Era (third to second century BCE) the intercalations followed a fixed scheme (the ``metonic cycle''). It is therefore possible to determine when any Goal-Year prediction has to be moved one month in one or the other direction. The authors have investigated the available corpus of relevant sources and found that these corrections are always performed when needed, and performed correctly; moreover, that the correction was made during the final step of the procedure, when data were transferred from the Goal-Year Text to an Almanac. Unfortunately, as the authors point out, it is not possible to decide which method was used by the Babylonian astronomers for determining when corrections should be made, even though some Goal-Year Texts indicate the presence of an intercalary month. For the moon, the correction was undertaken already at the production of the Goal-Year Text until Seleucid Era 107, but from SE 118 the same system as for planets prevailed.