Counting curves on the plane blown up in three collinear points (Q1041268)

Let \(\pi: S\to\mathbb{P}^2\) denote the blowing-up of the projective plane \(\mathbb{P}^2\) at three collinear points \(p_1\), \(p_2\), \(p_3\), let \(p_0\) be a point of \(\mathbb{P}^2\) that does not lie on the line \(\langle p_1,p_2,p_3\rangle\), and let \(U\) be the open subset of \(S\) obtained by removing the exceptional divisors of \(\pi\) and the strict transforms of the lines \(\langle p_0,p_i\rangle\), \(`\leq i\leq 3\), and \(\langle p_1,p_2, p_3\rangle\). Let \(E\) be a fixed smooth curve defined over a finite field \(k\) of \(q\) elements, let \(F\) be the function field of \(E\), and let \(N(d)\) stand for the number of \(k\)-morphisms \(f: E\to S\) such that \(f(E)\cap U\neq\emptyset\) and \(\deg f^*(\omega^{-1})= d\), where \(\omega^{-1}\) is the anti-canonical divisor of the surface \(S\). The author proves that \[ N(d)= cq^d d^{r-1}(1+ O(d^{-1})),\;c> 0, \] as \(d\to\infty\), where \(r(= 4)\) stands for the rank of the Picard group of \(S\), and interprets this asymptotic formula as an analogue of Manin's conjecture for the number of points of bounded height in \(U(F)\).