The spatial spread and final size of models for the deterministic host- vector epidemic (Q1060158)

This is a very important paper on models for the deterministic host- vector epidemic. ''The disease is transmitted solely from infected vector to uninfected host and from infected host to uninfected vector.'' The paper starts with non-spatial models. Model 1 considers susceptible, infected, and removed individuals in the fixed-size populations of hosts and vectors. At \(t=0\), both populations contain only susceptibles and a number of outside infectious individuals is introduced. The ''inside'' and ''outside'' removal and infection rates are fixed. Model 2 is more general: the rate of infection may depend on how long (\(\tau)\) the infectious agent has itself been infected, thus allowing, for instance, for latent periods or for recovery with immunity. There are no removals but these can be considered by putting the infection rates decaying with \(\tau\). Both models lead to the same type of integro- differential equations for the susceptibles \(x_ i(t)\) \((i=0,1\) for host or vector); these have nonnegative time decreasing solutions, which uniquely determine the solution to the initial problem. These equations are analysed by a clever trick: their solutions are in a one-to-one correspondence to the nonnegative time decreasing solutions of a simpler system of two integral equations, which has one and only one such solution under mild reasonable assumptions. The final-size \(v_ i=1-\lim_{t\to \infty}x_ i(t)\) of the epidemic is the solution of \(-\ln (1-v_ i)=\gamma_{1-i}v_{1-i}+a_{1-i}\) \((i=0,1)\) (\(\gamma\) 's and a's are parameters) under mild conditions. Conditions for a major epidemic and lower bounds to the final-size are obtained. Similar spatial symmetrical models on the real line are then introduced assuming uniform population density and distance-dependent infection rates. Uniformity conditions with respect to space allow a similar treatment and similar results, including a rigorous proof of the pandemic theorem. A rigorous study of the long distance behavior is also made. An extension to the real plane is provided assuming radial symmetry and other restrictions.