Parity progression in the presence of fetal death: transforming central rates into probabilities (Q1099807)

A demographic stochastic fertility model is presented that considers as events two types of outcomes of twenty weeks or more of pregnancy: fetal death and live birth. Intensity functions for these events are a function of the woman's age, her parity, and whether or not she has had any fetal deaths within the parity. Formulas are written for the following focal probabilities under the assumption of independence of waiting times between successive events: that a woman of age \(x_{i,0}\) and parity i will have a next event that is a live birth; that she will have a next event that is a fetal death and will ultimately progress to the next parity; that she will have a next event that is a fetal death and will fail to ultimately progress to the next parity; and that she will have no next event. Formulas are derived to connect various central fertility and fetal death rates with the focal probabilities.