A daily rainfall occurrence process (Q1111894)

A model for the periodic (annual cycle), discrete rainfall occurrence process is presented. Using this model the probabilistic properties of the process in \(\ell\)-day intervals can be investigated. In such an interval the rainfall occurrence process is approximated by some stationary process \(a_ t\), \(t\in {\mathbb{N}}\). The process \(a_ t\), \(t\in {\mathbb{N}}\) is described by the distributions of the lengths of wet and dry sequences. It is assumed that the lengths of successive wet and dry sequences are independent. For this process the distribution of the number of wet days in \(\ell\)-day intervals is calculated. The model is fitted to 50-year rainfall data from Wroclaw, Poland. Rainfall amounts of 0.1, 1.0 and 2.0 mm are considered as thresholds defining a wet day. To estimate the distribution of the length of wet and dry sequences the family of Pascal distribution is chosen.