A methodological study of a stochastic model of an AIDS epidemic (Q1112760)

A model of an AIDS epidemic in a population of male homosexuals was formulated as a stochastic population process. The paper is a methodological study in the sense that computer-intensive methods were used to investigate some properties of the model statistically rather than relying solely on classical methods of deductive mathematics. Three factors of importance in the evolution of an AIDS epidemic were studied in a numerical factorial experiment. These factors were the distribution of the latent period of HIV, the probability of infection with HIV per sexual contact with an infected individual, and the distribution of the number of contacts per sexual partner per month. The numerical experiment suggested that the distribution of the latent period of HIV will have a decisive impact on the evolution of an AIDS epidemic but this impact will depend crucially on the levels of the other two factors. A Monte Carlo experiment suggested that if forecasts of an epidemic were made solely on the basis of deterministic nonlinear difference equations embedded in the stochastic population process, then predictions of the number of individuals infected with HIV and AIDS cases may be overly pessimistic.