A stochastic spatial process to model the persistence of sickle-cell disease (Q1305408)

This paper is concerned with the survival of sickle-cell alleles \(S\) in a population situated on a \(d\)-dimensional integer lattice. Individuals on the lattice are classified as 0 if their genotype is \(AA\), where \(A\) is the normal allele, or 1 if their genotype is \(AS\), the genotype \(SS\) not being viable. The quantities \[ n_{0,1}(x,u)= \biggl|\bigl\{y\in Z^d:\| y-x \| =1, \quad u(y)=0,1 \bigr\}\biggr | \] are defined, where \(|\cdot |\) denotes cardinality, \(\|\cdot \|\) is the Euclidean norm on \(Z^d\), and \(u(y)\) is 0 or 1 depending on whether the individual at \(y\) is of type 0 or 1. The transition rates of the process are \[ 0\to 1\text{ at rate }\lambda n_1 (x,u), \quad 1\to 0\text{ at rate }n_0(x,u) +\lambda pn_1 (x,u), \] so that parents of type 1 have a birth rate \(2d\lambda\), while parents of type 0 have birth rate \(2d\), the individual at site \(x\) mating with an individual at site \(y\) chosen at random from its \(2d\) neighbours, with the offspring replacing the latter. If both parents are of type 0, so is the offspring; if the parent at \(x\) is a 0 and that at \(y\) is a 1, the offspring is a 0, but if \(x\) is a 1 and \(y\) is a 0, then the offspring is a 1. Finally if both parents are 1's, then the offspring is a 0 with probability \(p\) and a 1 with probability \(1-p\). The authors prove the following three theorems. Theorem 1.1: If \(\lambda>1\), for any \(d\geq 1\), there exists a \(p_c>0\) such that if \(p<p_c\), then the 1's survive. 1.2: If \(\lambda\leq 1\), and \(p>0\), for any \(d\geq 1\), then the 1's die out. Theorem 2. For \(d=1\) and \(\lambda\in(1,2)\), if \(p>(\lambda-1)/ \lambda\), the 1's die out. Theorem 3. For \(d\geq 1\) and any \(\lambda>0\), there is a \(p_c'\) (possibly \(>1)\) such that if \(p>p_c'\), then the 1's die out.