A general Markov model of the HIV epidemic in populations involving both sexual contact and IV drug use (Q1328846)

The authors develop a Markov model for the HIV epidemic involving both sexual contact and HIV drug use. They partition the infective and the AIDS stages into several substages. They assume that (i) the transition rates are independent of the infection duration and symptom duration, (ii) people with high risk levels may change their behaviour to become people with low risk levels, (iii) there is a latent stage and (iv) asymptomatic infective people are preferred to AIDS patients. The complexity of the model results in large differential equations for the probability generating function of the HIV epidemic, means, variances and covariances of susceptible, latent, infective and AIDS people. Using simulations the authors illustrate some possible applications of the model by assessing the effects of some risk factors on the HIV epidemic.