On the HIV incubation distribution under non-Markovian models (Q1336940)

`he author [ibid. 18, No. 4, 279-287 (1993; Zbl 0802.62098)] has derived the HIV incubation distributions for the HIV epidemic under Markov models. However, the infection duration of infective stages may have significant impacts on the HIV epidemic and in particular on the HIV incubation distribution. When such is the case, the HIV epidemic is no longer a Markov process. In order to take into account the effects of infection duration on the HIV epidemic, in this paper we proceed to derive the HIV incubation distributions under some general non-Markovian models. In Section 2, we consider a general stochastic model for the HIV incubation and derive the HIV incubation distributions under some general discrete time non-Markovian models. In Section 3, we extend the results of Section 2 to continuous time non-Markovian models. Using results of Sections 2 and 3, we illustrate in Section 4 how to derive HIV incubation distributions of the HIV epidemic under AZT treatment, thus providing extensions of results given by \textit{R. Brookmeyer} and \textit{J. Liao} [Biometrics 46, No. 4, 1151-1163 (1990; Zbl 0718.92023)] and by \textit{I. Longini} et al. [Stat. Med. 11, 831-843 (1992)].