Limits of predictability (Q1343013)

[The articles of this volume will not be indexed individually.] This book addresses the problem of predictability of various phenomena, both of physical origin (such as weather, climate, earthquakes, biological media, and dynamical chaos) and of a social nature (election preferences, laws of ethnogenesis, and so on). The book explores the predictive power of modern science, and consists of a set of survey chapters by distinguished experts, who have written them in a style that is understandable to nonexperts. The importance of the problems under review and the academic distinction of the team of authors ensure that this book will attract a large audience of readers who are interested in learning more about the achievements and prospects of modern science. All the authors have sought to make their articles popular enough to be understood by the average mathematically literate reader. At the same time, however, the articles discuss a number of fundamental questions that deserve expert attention. From the preface.) Contents: 1. \textit{Yu. A. Kravtsov}, Introduction (1-5); 2. \textit{A. S. Monin} and \textit{L. I. Piterbarg}, Forecasting weather and climate (7-44); 3. \textit{G. R. Ivanitskij}, How an active autowave medium can be used to predict the future (45-73); 4. \textit{G. G. Malinetskij}, Synergetics, predictability and deterministic chaos (75-141); 5. \textit{V. A. Lisichkin}, The information-theoretic approach to assessing reliability of forecasts (143-160); 6. \textit{M. A. Sadovskij} and \textit{V. F. Pisarenko}, Prediction of time series (161-172); 7. \textit{Yu. A. Kravtsov}, Fundamental and practical limits of predictability (173-203); 8. \textit{I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada}, The future is foreseeable but not predictable: The ``Oedipus effect'' in social forecasting (205-222); 9. \textit{V. I. Keilis-Borok} and \textit{A. J. Lichtman}, The self-organization of American society in presidential and senatorial elections (223-237); 10. \textit{L. N. Gumilev} and \textit{V. Yu. Yermolaev} (\textit{V. Yu. Ermolaev}), Problems of predictability in ethnogenic studies (239-250).