Fluctuation theory for Moran's genetics model (Q1363608)

Moran's genetic model is considered which decribes a population of fixed size \(N\) with individuals of two possible types of gametes, \(A_1\) and \(A_2\). The model incorporates mutations from one type to the other. This model includes the Ehrenfest urn model and the Bernoulli-Laplace urn model as special cases. The authors derive for the Bernoulli - Laplace urn model the asymptotics as the population size grows for the time of passage to extreme states where all individuals are of one type. The passage times have means which grow exponentially with the population size and when normalized converge weakly to an exponential distribution. The authors further approximate the expected time of passage to an extreme state for Moran's model in the case where mutation rates are small.