Estimation of HIV/AIDS parameters. (Q1421431)

The author proposes an estimation procedure for parameters of the simplest three-dimensional model of HIV/AIDS dynamics. The model takes into account the dynamics of uninfected and infected CD4+T cells and the evolution of the concentration of free virions. The author assumes that only measurements of the viral load and the healthy CD4+T cells counts in plasma are available and that at least five measurements of the former and four of the latter could be obtained. The estimators used in the study are based on the well-known techniques of adaptive identifiers and adaptive observers and the author demonstrates their efficiency in the early infection stage as well as in the asymptotic stage after using anti-retrovirus drugs. On the other hand, in the asymptotic stage of HIV without therapy and in the short period after treatment, determination of all parameters is impossible. The analytical results and hypotheses are verified by simulation studies carried out in the Matlab/Simulink environment.