A note on the risk of infections invading unaffected regions (Q1632632)
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English | A note on the risk of infections invading unaffected regions |
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A note on the risk of infections invading unaffected regions (English)
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17 December 2018
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Summary: We present two probabilistic models to estimate the risk of introducing infectious diseases into previously unaffected countries/regions by infective travellers. We analyse two distinct situations, one dealing with a directly transmitted infection (measles in Italy in 2017) and one dealing with a vector-borne infection (Zika virus in Rio de Janeiro, which may happen in the future). To calculate the risk in the first scenario, we used a simple, nonhomogeneous birth process. The second model proposed in this paper provides a way to calculate the probability that local mosquitoes become infected by the arrival of a single infective traveller during his/her infectiousness period. The result of the risk of measles invasion of Italy was of 93\% and the result of the risk of Zika virus invasion of Rio de Janeiro was of 22\%.
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infection risk
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unaffected regions
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infective travellers
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