Novel two-stage method for low-order polynomial model (Q1721485)

Summary: One of the most popular statistical models is a low-order polynomial response surface model, i.e., a polynomial of first order or second order. These polynomials can be used for global metamodels in weakly nonlinear simulation to approximate their global tendency and local metamodels in response surface methodology (RSM), which has been studied in various applications in engineering design and analysis. The order of the selected polynomial determines the number of sampling points (input combinations) and the resulting accuracy (validity, adequacy). This paper derives a novel method to obtain an accurate high-order polynomial while requiring fewer sampling points. This method uses a two-stage procedure such that the second stage modifies the low-order polynomial estimated in the first stage; this second stage does not require new points. This paper evaluates the performance of the method numerically by using several test functions. These numerical results show that the proposed method can provide more accurate predictions than the traditional method.