Calibration and Bayesian learning. (Q1867026)
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Language | Label | Description | Also known as |
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English | Calibration and Bayesian learning. |
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Calibration and Bayesian learning. (English)
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2 April 2003
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According to the author, in a repeated game of incomplete information, myopic players form beliefs on next-period play and choose strategies to maximize next-period payoffs, and their beliefs are treated as forecast of future plays. The forecast accuracy is assessed using calibration tests, which measure asymptotic accuracy of beliefs against some reliazations; the beliefs are calibrated if they pass all calibration tests. For a positive Lebesgue measure of payoff vectors, beliefs are not calibrated; but if a payoff vector and a calibration test are drawn from a suitable product measure, beliefs pass the calibration test almost surely.
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Bayesian learning
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Calibration
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Forecast
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Repeated games
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