On the Hsiao definition of non-causality (Q1978520)
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English | On the Hsiao definition of non-causality |
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On the Hsiao definition of non-causality (English)
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4 June 2000
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\textit{C. W. J. Granger} [Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37, 424-438 (1969)] defined causality between two variables \(X\) and \(Y\) in terms of predictability. A difficulty with this definition is that it is restricted to one-step ahead prediction. In the presence of a third environment variable \(Z\) the non-causality properties depend on the horizon of the involved prediction. \textit{C. Hsiao} [J. Econ. Dyn. Control 4, 243-259 (1982)] proposed a generalization of the Granger notion of causality. The main purpose of this paper is to show that the Hsiao non-causality properties do not depend on the horizon of involved prediction.
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environment variable
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Granger causality
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Hsiao non-causality
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prediction
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time series
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