Arithmetic degrees of special cycles and derivatives of Siegel Eisenstein series (Q2031677)

Kudla initiated a program connecting the Arakelov geometry of special cycles on integral models of orthogonal or unitary Shimura varieties to Siegel or Hermitian modular forms. In this setting arithmetic degrees of special cycles are conjecturally connected to derivatives of Siegel Eisenstein series. In particular, let \(V\) be a rational quadratic space of signature \((m, 2)\). A conjecture of Kudla relates the arithmetic degrees of top degree special cycles on an integral model of a Shimura variety associated with \(\mathrm{SO}(V)\) to the coefficients of the central derivative of an incoherent Siegel Eisenstein series of genus \(m+1\). In the present paper, the authors prove this conjecture for the coefficients of non-singular index \(T\) when \(T\) is not positive definite or when \(T\) is positive definite and the corresponding special cycle has dimension \(0\).