An alternative delayed population growth difference equation model (Q2047178)

The Beverton-Holt recurrence equation is a discrete-time logistic population growth model which can, in some sense, be thought of as a discretized version of Verhulst logistic growth model used in the modelling of fish populations. The Beverton-Holt model can be defined as \[ y_{t+1} = \frac{\rho K y_t}{K + (\rho - 1) y_t}, \] where \(K>0\) is the {carrying capacity} and \(\rho>1\) the {proliferation rate} over a generation. This model assumes that every generation of the population is non-overlapping and that the offspring of a generation instantaneously starts breeding in the next one. In this article, the authors introduce a delayed version of the Beverton-Holt model in which newborn individuals of the population do not become mature until the age \(\tau\), hence do not contribute to the population growth until that time. The delayed Beverton-Holt model derived in this article is written as \[ z_{t+1} = \frac{1}{1 + b + c z_t}\left( z_t + \frac{abz_{t-\tau+1}}{b(b+1)^{\tau} + ((b+1)^\tau - 1)c z_{t-\tau+1}} \right), \] where \(z_t = y_t/K\) is the fraction of the carrying capacity currently occupied by the population, \(a\) is the {natural growth component}, \(b\) the {natural death component} and \(c\) the {intraspecific competition} of the population. Note that this model corresponds to the classical Beverton-Holt model when \(\tau=0\) and \(a-b = c = \frac{\rho-1}{\rho}\). The authors then study the asymptotic behaviour of their model, proving that if the delay is larger than the {critical delay} \[\tau_c = \frac{\log\left(\frac{a}{b}\right)}{\log(1+b)},\] i.e., if the maturation period of juvenile individuals is too long, then the population grows extinct. Conversely, as long as the delay is smaller than \(\tau_c\), the population (started from a non-trivial initial condition) stabilizes around a positive equilibrium point.