Fractional stochastic differential equations. Applications to Covid-19 modeling (Q2139896)

This book promotes the use of stochastic fractional differential models to describe infectious disease propagation, particularly the spread of COVID-19, on the grounds that fractional differential operators (among other possible approaches) can be used to obtain predictions that better match experimental data, due to their nonlocal nature, while stochasticity allows for modelling the influence of random real-life events. This is primary a research book, most of the results included therein being obtained by the authors themselves and presented for the first time in book form. The book is structured into 12 chapters, which are concerned as much with numerical approximations as they are with analytic results. The references (usually between 3 and 13, a notable exception being the first chapter) are given on a per-chapter basis. The first chapter presents a primer of fundamental COVID-19 viral characteristics, its symptomatology and detection, along with WHO statistics regarding the early spread (up to the third wave) worldwide. An invitation to modelling with fractional differential operators is presented, as a way to deal with phenomena exhibiting ``long tail'' characteristics that are not accurately captured by power law kernels, generalized Mittag-Leffler kernels and Caputo-Fabrizio derivatives being introduced. A number of 46 references about the early spread of COVID-19, fractional derivatives and general disease transmission modelling are provided for further study. Chapter 2, of a more theoretical, operatorial nature, goes into more details in regard to several differential operators, rigorous definitions for these operators being provided along with certain well-posedness and regularity arguments for these operators. Numerical approximation schemes are then introduced for later use. Chapter 3 is concerned with existence and uniqueness results (obtained via parallel proofs presented in detail, based on convergence arguments and Gronwall estimates) for stochastic fractional differential equations with various type of derivatives (generic \(g\)-global, Riemann-Liouville, Caputo-Fabrizio, Atangana-Băleanu). Chapter 4 introduces a numerical scheme for the approximation of a general stochastic equation that relies on Newtonian polynomial interpolation. A predictor-corrector scheme tailored for a specific fractional derivative is also presented along with an error analysis for a numerical scheme constructed to approximate the solution of a general stochastic equation with a global derivative. Chapter 5 investigates a nonlinear SIR model with standard incidence of infection. After the well-posedness of the model is established and the stability of the equilibria is studied, versions of this model featuring several fractional derivatives in place of the classical one are considered. An optimal control problem for the initial model is solved and the influence of stochastic perturbations is investigated. The predictions offered by numerical approximations are then compared against real-world data gathered from Ukraine. A somewhat similar path is followed in Chapters 6 and 7, a SEIRD and a SEIR model, respectively, being of concern. Chapter 8 is concerned with COVID-19 spread in South Africa, unreported and asymptomatic cases being accounted for in a model employing classical derivatives, which is then augmented to account for the effect of stochastic perturbations. Latter, numerical solutions for models in which the classical derivative is replaced by several distinct fractional differential operators are obtained and the effects of stochastic perturbations are considered. Also, the accuracy of predictions is verified against real data. Chapter 9 follows a parallel path, for a model in which the severity of infection is accounted for by means of considering several distinct classes of infective individuals. Chapter 10 considers a SEIARD model accounting for symptomatics and asymptomatics. Chapter 11 considers a model with a viral reservoir, which leads to a more complicated coupling between the equations featured in the initial, deterministic model, whose predictions are compared with real data collected from Switzerland, while Chapter 12 considers a 6-dimensional model which accounts for a quarantined class.